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Istanbul (86 seats) is the behemoth where all parties will campaign prolifically. The rehearsed rule of thumb for Turkish elections is that Izmir votes secular, Ankara votes conservative and he who wins Istanbul wins the country.Д«ut there is plenty of reason to doubt that theory because there are more AK voters in Izmir (26 seats) than most will care to admit while Ankara (32) missed out on electing a CHP mayor by only a handful votes вЂ“ at least, according to official figures. TurkeyвЂ™s three biggest cities are where elections are won and lost. Treat these provinces as a microcosm for the rest of Turkey.

They range from Manisa (9 seats), which was claimed by the MHP in last yearвЂ™s local election, to Antalya (14), which fell to AK at the same time after a protracted battle with the CHP, and the aforementionedВ Adana, where the HDP is more influential than many care to admit. In fact, all the parties can credibly compete in many of them. These eight provinces each deliver between 8 and 14В seats and are not dominated by the AK Party. Middle-sized cities The competitive middle-sized cities

There will be some interesting competition to watch with AK in previously safeВ Gaziantep and ЕћanlД±urfa, which are among the largest provinces in the region, and to a lesser extent in the smaller eastern town of BingГ¶lВ (3 seats).ДЇurther west, Adana (14 seats) and Mersin (11) will bundle in the CHP and MHP to deliver fascinating four-way contests as fascinating as Istanbul. Kurdish rooted parties are traditionally strong in these provinces and this will be the first parliamentary election in 13 years to feature a pro-Kurdish choice on the ballot. This is where the battle will be between AK and the HDP. Having the HDP compete as a party rather than field independent candidates means AK will score far less than 60% in Gaziantep (12 seats) and ЕћanlД±urfa (12), while the MHP will mount a challenge in Samsun (9) вЂ“ and a fair few others too. Large seats like Konya (14 seats), Kayseri (9) and KahramanmaraЕџ (8) are safe bets with the AK expected to collect a very health majority.Д«ut вЂњsafeвЂќ does not mean invulnerable. In 2011, this accounted for nearly a third of the seats the party took. In 24 provinces, the government didnвЂ™t just win вЂ“ it won overwhelmingly, taking more than 60 percent of the vote. Safe in yellow вЂ“ but for how long? Safe in yellowДў011 was a good election for the AK Party and particularly here. Here are the four main groups of districts where will be watching the race. The districts are not equally sized вЂ“ neither in terms of seats nor population вЂ“ although larger districts are represented by more MPs.ДЄll districts will vote simultaneously on 7 June, although the race will be more competitive in some than others. The Turkish general election on 7 June 2015 will be contested in 85 electoral districts.

With 50 days to go, we look at the districts that will be most contested in the upcoming Turkish election

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